FL-9 POLL: Bad News, and Worse News, for Todd Long

September 24, 2012

A poll of likely voters in Florida’s 9th Congressional District shows Democrat Alan Grayson with a huge lead over Republican Todd Long. Grayson holds 47.9% of the vote, and Long 33.5%, with the rest undecided.

Grayson has a 12% lead among men, and a 19% lead among women. Grayson also leads 38% to 31% among independent voters. Grayson is ahead in all three counties in the district. Grayson enjoys a 2-to-1 lead among Hispanics, and the poll did not identify a single African-American who said that he or she would vote for Todd Long. (Hispanics and African-Americans make up a majority of the registered voters in the district.)

And now for the worse news for Todd Long: these numbers come from the beginning of the poll, before respondents were informed of Long’s record or his positions on the issues. After they were informed, Grayson’s support soared, and Long’s support plunged. In the “informed ballot,” Grayson beat Long by 56% to 26%.

“Our not-so-secret weapon is Todd Long’s extreme positions,” said Grayson for Congress campaign manager Mitch Emerson. “Long wants to raise the retirement age to 72, privatize Social Security, freeze Medicare, and then turn Medicare into ‘VoucherCare.’ Long’s positions are so extreme that even Paul Ryan wouldn’t let Long speak at Ryan’s UCF event, Ryan wouldn’t introduce Long, and Ryan wouldn’t even give Long a seat at the event. When Paul Ryan thinks you’re too far to the right, you’re really way out there.”

The poll was conducted by respected pollster The Kitchens Group, polling since 1983. It was conducted on Sept. 18-21. There were 507 respondents, and the margin of error was 4.4%