Grayson “Closest to a Sure-Thing”

September 25, 2012

Two congressional race prognosticators boosted their predictions on Monday for former congressman and current congressional candidate Alan Grayson (D-Orlando).

The D.C. publication Roll Call moved the race for Florida’s 9th Congressional District from “Likely Democratic” to "Safe Democratic,” which is the most favorable rating a Democratic candidate can get.

The second publication, the Southern Political Report, now calls Grayson the “closest to a sure-thing for the Democrats” in the entire southern region of the United States. The publication went on to describe Grayson’s opponent Todd Long (R-Winter Park) as “the weakest of the GOP field.”

Both of the new race ratings came BEFORE the Grayson for Congress campaign released on Monday afternoon the results of its latest poll. A survey of likely voters in Florida’s 9th Congressional District shows Grayson with a huge 14.4% lead over Long. Grayson holds 47.9% of the vote, and Long 33.5%, with the rest undecided.

Grayson has a 12% lead among men, and a 19% lead among women. Grayson also leads 38% to 31% among independent voters. Grayson is ahead in all three counties in the district. Grayson enjoys a 2-to-1 lead among Hispanics, and the poll did not identify a single African-American who said that he or she would vote for Todd Long. (Hispanics and African-Americans make up a majority of the registered voters in the district.)

Roll Call and the Southern Political Report join a growing list of prognosticators who have predicted that Grayson will easily win the election in November. The Rothenberg Political Report lists the race as “Democrat Favored,” which is the ranking Rothenberg gives to the races most likely to go Democratic. The independent website Real Clear Politics rates the District 9 race “Likely Dem,” which is the most favorable rating a Democratic candidate can attain in that publication. Finally, the Cook Political Report lists Grayson’s race as “Likely Democratic,” which is just short of its highest-rated “Solid Democratic” designation.