NEW POLL: Grayson Leads By 24 Points Among Votes That Are In

November 5, 2012

A new weekend poll shows that in the FL-9 Congressional race, former congressman Alan Grayson (D-Orlando) has built a huge 24-point lead among votes that are already in. In that group, it’s Grayson 60%, Long 36%. (Four percent of those who already voted said that they couldn’t remember for whom they voted.)

The votes that are in include “early voting,” which is now complete, and “absentee voting,” which includes some votes that are still in the mail. In 2008, the last Presidential election year, these two methods constituted a majority of the votes both in Florida (53%) and in Grayson’s district (56%). If the same thing is true this year, then Todd Long would have to beat Grayson by more than thirty points on Election Day to eke out a victory. The new poll shows that Long actually trails Grayson by nine points (54% to 45%), however, among those who say that they will vote, but haven’t voted yet. In the unlikely event that all of the respondents who say that they will vote actually do vote, then Grayson will win by 16 points (Grayson 57%, Long 41%). If some of those respondents don’t vote, then Grayson’s margin of victory will be even larger.

Grayson has maintained a lead of more than two to one among Hispanic voters (65 percent to 31 percent). Hispanic voters continue to shun Long because of Long’s promise to prohibit Spanish in the courts, schools and public hospitals, and his support of the racist Arizona immigration law. Notably, Grayson also leads among both women (58% to 38%) and men (56% to 44%). Grayson’s “net favorability” has increased since the last poll three weeks ago, from 14 percent (53%/39%) to 22 percent (58%/36%). Todd Long’s net favorability is one percent.

The poll was conducted this weekend, on both Saturday and Sunday, among likely FL-9 voters. There were 604 respondents, and the margin of error was 4.0%. Among the respondents, 43% were Democrats, and 27% were Republicans, reflecting the registration in the district. In this bilingual poll, 12% of the interviews for this poll were conducted in Spanish, according to the respondent’s preference. (Certain other polls in FL-9 were conducted in English only, yielding highly unreliable and inaccurate results.) The poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a Central Florida polling firm.